"These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend."
Or, our models are too conservative, and the world is warming even faster than they anticipated. In which case, temperatures will not revert to the expected trend, and continue on a course with even more extreme events, more often than their model predicts.
If so, we should know within a few years. Their model predicts that this kind of extreme temperature occurs only once in 512 years. If it occurs again, it will be impossible to claim that it's merely a low-probability event that happened to occur.
(Just as the paper says that this extreme jump is also impossible without including anthropogenic climate change in the model.)
"These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend."
Or, our models are too conservative, and the world is warming even faster than they anticipated. In which case, temperatures will not revert to the expected trend, and continue on a course with even more extreme events, more often than their model predicts.
If so, we should know within a few years. Their model predicts that this kind of extreme temperature occurs only once in 512 years. If it occurs again, it will be impossible to claim that it's merely a low-probability event that happened to occur.
(Just as the paper says that this extreme jump is also impossible without including anthropogenic climate change in the model.)